I have a prediction: one of the biggest business acumen trends of 2025 will be large companies
instructing their mid- and upper-level managers to stop being so passive and start making significant bets.
Why do I make this prediction? Because five out of the last six business acumen programs I have delivered for clients across various industries, including pharmaceuticals, high tech, chemicals, and consumer products, have requested that I develop business simulations to help participants learn about the processes and best practices of making big bets.
It’s Still a “Bet”
I always worry when a company brings a gambling term into strategic thinking. The truth of the matter is that the premise of making big bets isn’t really about taking risks and trying new things; it’s about forcing leaders to be more aggressive and to think more boldly.
The problem is that not everyone understands the potentially devastating consequences.
Example of Big Bets Gone Wrong
23andMe
The first example that comes to mind is the once darling of Wall Street, 23andMe. 23andMe is a personal genomics and biotechnology company that offers direct-to-consumer genetic testing. Customers provide a saliva sample, and the company analyzes their DNA to provide ancestry information and insights into health risks, traits, and carrier status for genetic conditions. The company once had a market cap of over $6 billion, despite never having made a profit and having no projections to profitability.
The Bet: The leadership team at 23andMe decided to make a significant investment in transforming themselves into a pharmaceutical company, believing they could leverage their knowledge and insights to create innovative, personalized medicines for patients.
Outcome: Today, the stock is worthless.
Ford’s Push into the Electronic Vehicle Market
The Bet: Ford announced a massive investment in EVs, including new factories and the electric F-150 Lightning to compete with Tesla.
Why it failed (so far): Demand fell short, EV adoption slowed in the U.S., supply chain costs ballooned, and the Lightning’s sales dropped sharply.
Outcome: Ford paused construction on one of its major EV battery plants in late 2023 and scaled back production plans.
Zoom’s Attempt to Diversify Away from Conference Calling
The Bet: Zoom attempted to acquire Five9, a cloud contact center company, for $14.7 billion to diversify beyond video calls.
Why it failed: Shareholders rejected the deal due to valuation concerns, and Zoom's stock price dropped sharply. It exposed Zoom’s limited post-pandemic growth story.
Outcome: Zoom lost momentum, and competitors such as Microsoft Teams and Google Meet gained ground.
Disney’s Streaming Pivot & Disney+ Losses
The Bet: Disney made a significant investment in streaming by launching Disney+ in 2019 and restructuring its business around direct-to-consumer (DTC) operations.
Why it has failed (so far): Heavy content spending, subscriber churn, and profitability issues have led to mounting losses, exceeding $10 billion from 2019 to 2023. Bob Iger returned to unwind parts of this bet.
Outcome: Disney+ has struggled to achieve profitability, and the company is now exploring licensing content to rivals — essentially revisiting its streaming-first strategy.
Learning Lessons: Five Things to Do to Avoid Losing Big Bets
1) Validate the Vision Before Scaling
Don’t invest money in an unproven market with unclear consumer demand.
What to do instead:
- Start with small, testable prototypes.
- Invest in customer research and early market signals.
- Use stage-gated investment: scale only when validation checkpoints are met.
Lessons from 23andMe: Don’t invest in ideas that are too outside of your core competencies and values
What to do instead:
- Ask: Does this leverage our real strengths?
- Ensure the bet aligns with the organization's or plan's DNA for deep capability building.
Lessons from Disney+: Huge content spend without a clear path to profitability strained the business.
What to do instead:
- Pair visionary goals with strong business models and financial guardrails.
- Use metrics like customer acquisition cost (CAC) vs. lifetime value (LTV) early and often.
- Plan for measured burn, especially in consumer businesses.
Lesson from Ford’s EV push: The EV market cooled as interest rates rose and supply chains struggled. Ford built for future demand that didn’t arrive fast enough.
What to do instead:
- Consider market readiness and macro trends (e.g., interest rates, subsidies, consumer behavior).
- Build optionality into capital-intensive bets: scalable plants, modular product designs, flexible timelines.
Lesson from Zoom & Five9: Zoom’s big acquisition didn’t align with shareholder expectations, and the company couldn’t carry the narrative.
What to do instead:
- Align leadership, culture, investors, and execution teams around the bet.
- Use clear storytelling to bring stakeholders along.
- Plan for organizational readiness — new talent, capabilities, and operational models.
Bonus: Don’t Be Afraid to Course-Correct
Even bold bets need regular reevaluation. Smart companies adjust without ego.
Success isn't about avoiding big bets, it’s about making better bets, and being nimble as reality inevitably unfolds.
