We just finished a Business Acumen workshop for one of our heavy manufacturing clients. During the 3rd round of their customized business simulation, we had prepared a “wobbler” for the purpose of having the senior leaders feel and discuss the impact of a significant interest rate cut after a full year
of near recession cooling down. We wanted the conversation and the actions to focus on “saving” the business year in terms of the guidance the simulated teams had provided to their simulated shareholders and board of directors.
After the round, we processed what happened and had a nice 45-minute “bridge-back” discussion to plan actions to take the key learnings back to the real world.
I took a lot of notes and am pleased to share some of the interesting findings and insights.
Here are five thoughts on, “Can cutting interest rates significantly impact Q3 and Q4 performance?”:
Expect an Immediate Boost in Consumer Spending
Positives: Typically, lower interest rates tend to immediately increase consumer spending by reducing borrowing costs for individuals, such as for mortgages and credit cards. As we have seen with the consumer-driven economy of the past decade, higher consumer demand will significantly boost revenue for companies in consumer goods, big-ticket purchases (automobiles), retail, and services sectors.
Negatives: The biggest concern is the resilience of the consumer. Will they see the interest rate cut as artificial or temporary? Is it covering up bigger and worse issues? This rate cut might be limited if the economy is facing broader structural issues or if consumer confidence remains low due to economic uncertainty.
Lower Expense and Cost of Borrowing
Positives: When interest rates decrease, borrowing costs for corporations go down. This can reduce expenses for companies with significant debt or plan to take on new loans to invest in operating expenses like capacity expansion, R&D, Marketing, and infrastructure. In general, lower interest rates reduce interest expense which increases net income (profit).
Negatives: If a company already has a stable financial position or doesn’t need much borrowing or wants to sit things out to see if this is real, the impact might be marginal.
Increased Investments in Key Business Drivers
Positives: Lower rates can make it more attractive for companies to invest in capital expenditures, research and development, or expansion projects. This can enhance future growth prospects, more hiring, and higher employee satisfaction and confidence.
Negatives: If companies lack confidence in future economic conditions, they may be reluctant to invest despite lower borrowing costs. Think of the cyclical impact of everyone waiting for things to “get better” and nobody is borrowing or growing. That could exponentially through the economy into a further tailspin.
Impact on the Stock Market
Positives: Lower interest rates tend to boost stock markets because investors seek higher returns from equities (stocks) when bond yields are low. A higher stock price can improve corporate valuations and make it easier to raise capital. It also “rewards” your shareholders through appreciation of value and potential dividends.
Negatives: If the overall economy is weak and not growing at a healthy rate, stock market gains might be short-lived, and companies could still face challenges in their core operations and metrics like revenue and profit growth.
Current Financial Health of Companies
Positives: If companies are already strong financially, interest rate cuts will help sustain their healthiness.
Negatives: If companies are fundamentally weak due to poor management, low demand, high inventory, low cash balances, high debt, or other structural issues, cutting interest rates may not be enough to "save" them. It may provide temporary relief, but it won't address deeper problems.
In summary, The Business Acumen challenges with the recent interest rate cuts are going to be greater than ever. The best that you can do is to strengthen the things that are already strong at and keep pushing (such as new product launches, increased margins, and better cash flow), and mitigate the impact of your weaknesses through smart investments.
